BETTING ODDS: Patterson (-400); Ponzinibbio
(+300)
The “Argentine Dagger” will look to knock the rust off when he
returns to the cage for the first time in over a year against the
towering Patterson in this welterweight attraction.
Just two months shy of his 40th birthday, Ponzinibbio is clearly in
the final stages of a long decline. His gloriously violent game was
never built for the long haul, and even in his 20s he was
notoriously injury-prone; not for nothing does he have just 20
fights in 13 years on UFC roster. He still has some of the
qualities that made him the signature action hero of the
welterweight division in the late 2010s, when at his best he
smashed opponents to paste or slashed them to ribbons with a
striking attack that blended Robbie
Lawler’s combination boxing and blood-and-guts approach with
Tony
Ferguson’s eight-limbed arsenal of pointy weapons and gleeful
nastiness in the pocket.
The primary problems for Ponzinibbio, as for so many phone-booth
fighters, are that even in his prime he took a lot of punishment,
and was saved from taking a lot more by slipping and rolling with
strikes. As his reflexes and durability have waned, he simply can’t
survive the kinds of wars in which he once thrived. As a result,
the man who went 9-2 to open his UFC run, including seven straight
victories before injuries kept him on the shelf for all of 2019 and
2020, is 3-6 since coming back with several ugly knockout losses,
including his most recent outing against Daniel
Rodriguez last May.
Patterson has been a pleasant surprise since joining the UFC out of
Dana White’s Contender Series four years ago. Initially
presenting as one of the largest lightweights we’ve ever seen, he
quickly moved up to 170 pounds—where he is still
enormous—and rattled off four straight wins before dropping a
decision to Michael
Page in March at UFC London. The 30-year-old Englishman is a
classic overachiever, and like many overachievers, he has crafted a
game that maximizes his physical advantages and seeks to cover for
his shortcomings.
On the feet, as a titanic welterweight with relatively slow hands
and feet, he works to keep opponents at the end of his long reach,
but for those who manage to get inside, he collapses the pocket all
the way, either initiating the clinch himself or punishing his foe
for clinching with nasty knees. Defensive wrestling will probably
always be a liability for a 6-foot-4 welterweight, but he is not
averse to trying for takedowns of his own, and he is a very good
grappler, quick in transition and capable of threatening opponents’
necks from almost anywhere.
The wide betting line is unsurprising here. Ponzinibbio looked like
a physically shot fighter 14 months ago against Rodriguez and if
there is any appreciable difference on Saturday, it probably won’t
be a positive one. Having said that, Patterson is about as winnable
a fight for him as anyone of comparable standing in the current
welterweight division; even at 39, Ponzinibbio might have the
quicker hands in this fight, and he still does hit hard. It’s
possible to envision him catching Patterson cold in the early
going, hurting him, maybe opening a cut, and pouring it on for one
last great win before retiring.
That’s the outside possibility, though. More likely is that the
grizzled Argentinian struggles to get to his preferred range, eats
a clean shot or two from the towering Brit, and either gets knocked
out or blunders into Patterson’s dangerous front headlock and ends
up in a guillotine or anaconda choke. The pick is Patterson by
second-round finish.
Jump To »
Walker vs. Petersen
Jacoby vs. Said
Ponzinibbio vs. Patterson
Bonfim vs. Sola
Ribeiro vs. Tuchalov
Aliev vs. Davis
Gibson vs. Hussein
