Former Federal Reserve Governor Kevin Warsh on Friday vaulted to the front of the pack in the race for central bank chair following remarks from President Donald Trump, according to a closely watched prediction market.
Traders on Kalshi pushed Warsh well ahead of the person seen as his closest competitor, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett.
In remarks delivered Friday morning, Trump, without explicitly stating his decision, said he’d prefer to keep Hassett in his position as top economic advisor.
“I see Kevin’s in the audience, and I just want to thank you. You were fantastic on television today,” Trump said during remarks in the White House. “I actually want to keep you where you are, if you want to know the truth.”
After Trump spoke, traders on Kalshi raised their bets to a 59% chance of Warsh getting the job, compared to just 14% for Hassett. Even current Fed Governor Christopher Waller, considered a longshot for position, pulled ahead of Hassett, with an 18% chance.
As recently as Wednesday, Warsh and Hassett were in a near dead heat.
Traders on Polymarket expressed a similar dynamic, with Warsh leading Hassett 58% to 11% and Waller at 16%. Traders are giving little odds to BlackRock fixed income chief Rick Rieder and Fed Governor Michelle Bowman, the other two candidates considered finalists.
Trump has indicated he will name a Powell successor this month but hasn’t provided a specific date. Powell’s term as chair ends in May.
Turning to White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles, Trump said, “We don’t want to him lose [Hassett], Susie, but we’ll see how it all works out.”
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