Our betting expert shares predictions for the Nations League clash between Türkiye and Italy. A draw could be the most likely outcome.
Best bets for Türkiye vs Italy
- BTTS – Yes at odds of 1.56 on Stake
- First team to score – Italy at odds of 1.91 on Stake
- 1×2 – Draw at odds of 3.45 on Stake
Our analysis: Form of both teams
- Score prediction: Türkiye 1-1 Italy
- Goalscorers prediction: Türkiye: Arda Guler – Italy: Pio Esposito
Türkiye’s maiden game in Nations League A didn’t go according to plan, as France beat them 1-0 at home. That defeat means the hosts are already under pressure to collect points on Matchday 2 and prevent the leaders from pulling further clear. The good news for the hosts is that the current top two, France and Belgium, will also meet concurrently.
Vincenzo Montella should not be too disheartened by what he saw from his men against France. It was only in the 54th minute that his side were breached, and they were relatively tight afterwards, as the game finished 1-0. The Italian will fancy his side’s chances of at least avoiding defeat against his birth nation on Tuesday.
He will face a former teammate in Roberto Mancini, who returns to the Italy dugout after spending three years in Saudi Arabia. After failing to qualify for yet another World Cup, Italian football was once again at a crossroads. As a result, Mancini was brought back for his second stint in charge, replacing Gennaro Gattuso.
However, with a relatively younger squad in place, Mancini’s first game back was far from a dream return. Belgium were comfortable 2-0 victors in Rome, leaving the Azzurri in a similar position to Tuesday’s hosts. Points are needed for both nations now, as they hope to play catch-up with the two nations above them in Group A1.
Probable lineups for Türkiye vs Italy
Türkiye expected lineup: Bayindir, Celik, Demiral, Bardakci, Aydin, Ozcan, Yuksek, Kadioglu, Guler, Akturkoglu, Yilmaz
Italy expected lineup: Donnarumma, Kayode, Mancini, Bastoni, Calafiori, Barella, Tonali, Frattesi, Cambiaghi, P. Esposito, Raspadori
Both sides can find the net
Türkiye have scored five goals in as many of their previous outings, averaging a goal per 90. Yet, they’ve been struggling for fluency in front of goal. Their previous four internationals in front of their fans produced 11 goals, suggesting they could do better on Tuesday.
While they didn’t score against France last week, they recorded a higher xG (expected goals) of 1.21 compared to their opponents’ 1.17. The Crescent Stars matched France’s shot output with 12 apiece, while they lost on shots on target with three to the visitors’ four. These numbers suggest they’re creating enough opportunities, especially against a team of France’s stature.
Italy have the same record of scoring five goals in their last five matches. The Azzurri netted exactly once in three of their last four outings. Three of the previous five head-to-heads saw both teams score, while only two of the last eight meetings didn’t produce goals for both sides.
- Türkiye vs Italy Betting Tip 1: BTTS – Yes at odds of 1.56 on Stake
Türkiye at risk of another slow start
Roberto Mancini’s teams typically start strongly, but that intensity fades in the second period. Failing to score against Belgium must have frustrated the experienced manager, who expects his side to respond positively on Tuesday. Before that game, Italy had scored the opening goal in eight consecutive games.
Montella’s side must avoid another slow start on Tuesday, as the visitors could capitalise if the hosts are not fully focused. Türkiye’s recent history is vastly different to Italy’s. There are clear signs that the opposition can stun them early on. The hosts conceded first in each of their last five matches on the bounce.
The previous competitive head-to-head took place at the 2020 European Championships. Italy scored first in that game on their way to a 3-0 triumph and the trophy. As a result, it’s worth backing the Azzurri to land the first blow on Tuesday.
- Türkiye vs Italy Betting Tip 2: First team to score – Italy at odds of 1.91 on Stake
A draw could be on the cards in Bursa
Both managers are currently overseeing periods of rebuilding. Montella has had considerably more time to implement his ideas than Mancini. Italy were slightly lost against Belgium, so it could take a while for them to rediscover their form.
In the meantime, Türkiye hope to avoid another defeat at home. Overall, they have a positive record in their backyard, having won nine of their previous 13 such matches. Defeat to France last week was their first in the Nations League across the last 10 such outings.
Italy also enjoy a decent record against Türkiye. They are unbeaten in their previous 13 head-to-heads, winning nine and drawing four. In the previous Nations League cycle, the Azzurri won all three of their away group stage matches. Mancini will be eager to replicate that feat.
Additionally, three of the last five clashes between the nations ended in a stalemate. Considering the current situation of both teams, another stalemate in Bursa on Matchday 2 would not be a surprise.
- Türkiye vs Italy Betting Tip 3: 1×2 – Draw at odds of 3.45 on Stake
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