Two MLB teams who are playing well meet at the Liberty Bell tonight. In the setting of the movie Rocky, the underdog payroll Guardians attempt to land one on the jaws of the high-profile spending Phillies.
The Guardians are 30-22 with a +23 run differential, 13th in team wRC+ at 101, eighth in baserunning runs above average at +2, 11th in Defense at -5.4, sixth in starting pitcher ERA at 3.59 (3.99 FIP), and 13th in bullpem ERA at 3.80 (3.86 FIP).
The Phillies are 25-25 with a -24 run differential, 23rd in team wRC+ at 93, sixth in baserunning runs above average at +2.9, 17th in Defense at -8.3, 22nd in starting pitcher ERA at 4.49 (3.51 FIP), and 16th in bullpen ERA at 4.04 (3.40 FIP).
The Phillies are definitely not as bad as their record or run differential indicates, but their defense is bad and their bullpen is quite shaky. As seen below, the Guardians are seeing their top two starters, so the poor performance of 3/5ths of their rotation, sadly, won’t come as much into play. Cleveland will have to win this series the hard way, if they do it.
MATCHUPS:
Game One, Friday, 6:40PM ET: Cristopher Sanchez, LHP 1.82 ERA (1.92 FIP) vs. Gavin Williams, RHP 3.67 ERA (4.17 FIP)
Game Two, Saturday, 4:05 PM ET: Zack Wheeler, RHP 1.99 ERA (2.37 FIP) vs. Slade Cecconi, RHP 5.16 ERA (4.99 FIP)
Game Three, Sunday, 1:35PM ET: Andrew Painter, RHP 5.77 ERA (4.59 FIP) vs. Parker Messick, LHP 2.45 ERA (3.17 FIP).
This time, the Guardians have drawn a rough slate having to face Sanchez and Wheeler, who are among the top 10 best starters in baseball. The key will be to make them work, get them out of the game as soon as possible, and put the ball in play as often as possible against a bad Phillies’ defense. …Gonna need to score some runs to steal a couple in this series.
The Guardians are led by Travis Bazzana at 133 wRC+, Chase DeLauter at 130 wRC+, Jose Ramirez 130 wRC+, Brayan Rocchio 130 wRC+, Angel Martinez 119 wRC+, David Fry 112 wRC+, Daniel Schneemann 109 wRC+ and Rhys Hoskins 105 wRC+.
The Phillies are led by Kyle Schwarber 168 wRC+, Bryce Harper 138 wRC+, and Brandon Marsh at 124 wRC+. Don’t let Schwarber beat you.
