Favorites have the slight edge to start the NFL season. The Kansas City Chiefs‘ 31-10 win over the Denver Broncos gave favorites a 9-7 edge against the spread in Week 1. Underdogs still did OK, with four straight up wins including a big upset by the Cardinals.
Here are the top five betting storylines as we head into Week 2 of the NFL season:
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Panthers have chance to break weird streak
Somehow, someway, the Carolina Panthers have not covered a game as a favorite since 2021.
That seems impossible, but Yahoo Sports’ Ben Fawkes had the goods:
The Panthers have been bad for most of that time so they haven’t been favorites often, but an 0-9 straight-up record as a favorite isn’t anything to be proud of either. If they close as favorites, it’s a good chance to break that streak against an Atlanta Falcons team that has serious questions at quarterback. If the Panthers can’t break the streak this week, they might get another chance next week as a probable favorite at Cleveland.
Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers are favored for their Week 2 matchup vs. Atlanta.
(Jared C. Tilton via Getty Images)
Can 49ers cover a huge spread?
The biggest favorite on the board is 0-1 straight up and against the spread this season. We all know by now that the Chargers were upset as 9.5-point favorites by the Cardinals, causing carnage in survival pools.
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The first true double-digit favorite of the season comes in Week 2. The San Francisco 49ers are 13.5-point favorites over the Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins were 3.5-point underdogs at the Raiders and lost by 14 points in Week 1. No matter how many survival pool players lost on the biggest favorite in Week 1, San Francisco should be a runaway top pick for Week 2. We’ll see if there’s more chaos.
Overs do well in Week 1
The season opener is often a good time to take unders, especially with more teams either hardly playing starters in preseason or not playing them at all. And it looked like Week 1 this season would be good for unders when the first two games on Wednesday and Thursday night were comfortably under the total.
Then Sunday came and there were some massive scoring performances. There were 791 points though Sunday’s games of Week 1, matching the NFL’s Week 1 record, according to Front Office Sports. On Sunday, overs went 9-4. Maybe that’s a sign to come for a high-scoring September.
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Changes in Week 2 lines
Week 1 leads to overreactions. It also leads to point spreads having significant changes.
Based on the lookahead lines, tracked by 4×4.com, 10 spreads moved at least a point and a half from last week to Monday. There were three that moved at least a field goal. The line moved 5.5 points for Seahawks-Cardinals (from Seattle -10 to -4.5) and three points for Panthers-Falcons (it was Atlanta -1.5 and is now Carolina -1.5), but both of those moved at least in part due to quarterback injuries. The other that moved at least three points was San Francisco, which went from -10.5 to -13.5 based on the 49ers’ strong win over the Rams and the Dolphins losing by 14 at Las Vegas.
Another interesting line move was the Chargers going from -9.5 to -7 against the Raiders after their dud against the Cardinals.
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Rams still Super Bowl favorites
The Rams’ poor Week 1 showing didn’t change their status as Super Bowl favorite. Neither did Myles Garrett going on injured reserve. But the Rams’ bad week did shift some odds. The Rams are still favored to win it all, though a little bit longer at +650 at most books. They were +550 at most sportsbooks last week. They have lost their status as NFC West favorite at some books though, with the 49ers at +160, the Seahawks at +175 and the Rams at +205 at DraftKings (the Rams are still favored at BetMGM and other books).
The Rams are still 7-point favorites over the Giants for Week 2, though the lookahead line last week was -9.5.
