For much of the college football season, the ACC standings have been clustered with numerous teams tied for first place in the standings.
It’s only fitting, with that in mind, that the ACC championship game matchup won’t be set until after Week 14.
Just as the case was heading into Week 13, six teams remain in contention for a spot in the conference championship game in Charlotte at Bank of America Stadium going into the final week of the regular season: Virginia, SMU, Pitt, Miami, Georgia Tech and Duke.
Based on the most recent unveiling of the College Football Playoff top 25 rankings, the winner of the ACC could be the conference’s lone bid to the 12-team CFP bracket. Miami is the penciled-in representative from the ACC based on the CFP top 25 rankings, though the Hurricanes need a lot to go in their favor to book a flight up from Coral Gables for the game.
The two contenders that have the easiest paths to the ACC championship game, which is set for 8 p.m. ET on Saturday, Dec. 6 at Bank of America Stadium, are Virginia and SMU thanks to Georgia Tech dropping its second game of the season last week against Pitt.
Here’s a look at how each team could make the ACC championship game going into Week 14:
ACC championship tiebreakers
Virginia (9-2, 6-1 in ACC play)
- Path to the ACC championship game: Beat Virginia Tech OR Pitt loses to Miami
Virginia has one of the simplest paths to the ACC championship game, as all the Cavaliers need is a win over Virginia Tech to secure their spot in Charlotte. However, if Virginia is unable to defeat its in-state rival, Tony Elliott’s squad can still make the conference championship game with a Pitt loss to Miami.
SMU (8-3, 6-1 in ACC play)
- Path to the ACC championship game: Beat Cal OR Pitt loses to Miami
Like Virginia, SMU has a straightforward path as a result of Georgia Tech’s loss in Week 13. All the Mustangs need to do to make it 2-for-2 in trips to the ACC championship game since coming over from the American Conference is to beat Cal on the road.
On the off-chance that Cal, which fired Justin Wilcox earlier in the week, defeats SMU, the Mustangs can also get into the conference championship game with a Miami win over Pitt. The Mustangs’ come-from-behind overtime win over Miami on Nov. 1 could serve to be a big win for Rhett Lashlee’s squad.
Pitt (8-3, 6-1 in ACC play)
- Path to the ACC championship game: Beat Pitt AND need either SMU loss to Cal or Virginia loss to Virginia Tech
There has not been a hotter team in ACC play of late than Pitt over the last month or so. Since switching over to Mason Heintschel on Oct. 4 against Boston College, the Panthers have won six straight conference games, including last week’s commanding upset over then-No. 16 Georgia Tech in Atlanta.
To return to Charlotte for the first time since winning it in 2021, the Panthers first need to defeat Miami. If the Panthers can defeat the Hurricanes, they’d then need either SMU to lose to Cal or Virginia to lose to Virginia Tech to secure their spot at Bank of America Stadium.
If Pitt defeats Miami and SMU and Virginia win their respective games, the Mustangs and Cavaliers would make the ACC title game out of the three-way tie because of the Panthers’ loss to Louisville.
Georgia Tech (9-2, 6-2 in ACC play)
- Path to the ACC championship game: Virginia to lose to Virginia Tech, AND SMU to lose to Cal
Georgia Tech coughed up a chance to play in the ACC championship game last week against Pitt. For that loss, the Yellow Jackets do not control their own destiny, as Brent Key’s squad ended the season with “Clean, Old-Fashioned Hate” against Georgia.
The only path that Georgia Tech has consists of Virginia losing to Virginia Tech and SMU losing to Cal. If that happens, Georgia Tech would get in over the Cavaliers and the Mustangs because of a shared opponent head-to-head tiebreaker that involves Wake Forest. Both Virginia and SMU lost to Wake Forest, while Georgia Tech beat the Demon Deacons.
Miami (9-2, 5-2 in ACC play)
- Path to the ACC championship game: Beat Pitt, AND Duke loss to Wake Forest; OR SMU loss to Cal; OR Virginia loss to Virginia Tech
Even at two losses, including one against SMU, Miami remains in contention for the ACC championship game going into Week 14. Despite having a chance to play for its first ACC title, the Hurricanes need quite a bit to happen to get them to Charlotte to play for said title.
Miami’s path begins with a win on the road at Pitt. It then consists of two of the following: Duke loses to Wake Forest; SMU loses to Cal; or Virginia loses to Virginia Tech.
Here are some possible matchups for Miami should those scenarios play out from USA TODAY’s Paul Myerberg:
- Beat Pitt while SMU and Duke lose, leading to a matchup against Virginia.
- Beat Pitt while SMU and Virginia lose, leading to a matchup against Duke.
- Beat Pitt while Virginia and Duke lose, leading to a matchup against SMU.
Duke (6-5, 5-2 in ACC play)
- Path to the ACC championship game: Beat Wake Forest; AND Pitt loss to Miami; OR SMU loss to Cal
Could there be a five-loss team that makes the ACC championship? Yes, there could be, even though the parlay to get that to happen is a bit lengthy and crazy. That team would be Duke, which is 5-2 in ACC play despite having five overall losses on its resume.
For the Blue Devils to make the 142-mile drive over to Charlotte from Durham, Duke needs a win over Wake Forest and either a Pitt loss to Miami or an SMU loss to Cal.
As noted by Myerberg, should SMU fall to Cal and all the remaining favorites in the ACC win their Week 14 games, Duke would secure a spot in the ACC championship game in this case because of a higher conference opponent winning percentage than Miami, SMU, Pitt and Georgia Tech.
ACC tiebreaker rules
Should there be a tie (or ties) in the ACC standings to determine the conference championship game, here’s the ACC tiebreakers that would be used, according to the conference office:
Two-Team Tie
- A. Head-to-head competition between the two tied teams.
- B. Win-percentage against all common opponents.
- C. Win-percentage against common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish.
- D. Combined win-percentage of conference opponents.
- E. The tied team with the higher ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of regular-season games.
- F. A random draw
Three (or More) Team Tie
- A. Combined head-to-head win-percentage among the tied teams if all tied teams are common opponents.
- B. If all tied teams are not common opponents, the tied team that defeated each of the other tied teams.
- i. If all tied teams are not common opponents and no tied team defeated each of the other tied teams, but a tied team lost to each of the other tied teams, such team shall be eliminated and removed from the tie.
- C. Win-percentage against all common opponents.
- D. Win-percentage against common opponents based upon their order of finish (overall conference win percentage, with ties broken) and proceeding through other common opponents based upon their order of finish.
- E. Combined win-percentage of conference opponents.
- F. The tied team with the highest ranking by the Team Rating Score metric provided by SportSource Analytics following the conclusion of regular season games.
- G. A random draw
