It’s Labor Day, and baseball fans know what that means — we’ve reached the stretch run of the 2026 MLB season.
While a number of things seem to be settled — from a several divisions to the top wild-card spots — there’s still plenty of intrigue entering the homestretch. Which of the current contenders will reach October? Which teams will secure the final spots in the postseason? Who will lead MLB in home runs at season end — and which pitcher will rack up the most K’s?
To discuss what the final month of the regular season might bring, we asked our ESPN baseball experts some of the game‘s biggest questions, covering September and beyond, and to explain their answers. We also asked them to make bold predictions about what will happen over the final stretch.
Let’s dive into it.
Team predictions
How many of the current 12 teams projected for the playoffs will be in the postseason field?
All 12: 2 votes
11: 5
10: 6
9: 2
Most of our voters think we’ll see a little movement in the field — but not a lot. Why? Most of the division leads feel pretty secure, and the playoff odds back that up — plus, the teams currently out of the playoff picture just haven’t given enough reason to believe in them. The Mariners? They’ve been awful for two months. The Marlins? 19-25 since the All-Star break. The Twins? They went 10-17 in August. The Blue Jays can’t score. We might see at least one change in the division leaders — the White Sox are looking sketchy in the rotation, and maybe the Rangers catch the Astros in the division nobody wants to win — but it’s not shaping up to be the most dramatic of Septembers. — David Schoenfield
How many of the six current leaders will win their divisions?
All six: 9 votes
Five: 6
Our voters mostly went chalk with the division winners. Why do you think all six will hold on to their current leads? Because the most hotly contested division races come in an AL defined by its glut of average teams. The Yankees aren’t likely to surpass Tampa Bay unless Aaron Judge returns with a vengeance and they sweep the Rays in their final series. The Guardians would likely require a sweep in Chicago next week, a low-probability bet given their inability to score runs in bunches. And out west, the Astros and Rangers have exhausted their head-to-heads, with Houston going 9-4. — Paul Hembekides
Out of the Brewers, Dodgers and Braves, which two will get byes in the NL?
Milwaukee Brewers: 15 votes
Los Angeles Dodgers: 13
Atlanta Braves: 2
Most of our other voters chose both the Dodgers and Brewers to win the byes — you chose Milwaukee and Atlanta. What makes you believe in the Braves? The Dodgers’ schedule is easier than that of the Braves, who have two series against the Phillies, plus sets against the Rays and Cubs. But the Dodgers’ offensive issues are real, and they might have to rest Ohtani to get him right by the start of the postseason. — Buster Olney
Which team will secure the final wild-card spot in the AL?
Toronto Blue Jays: 10 votes
Cleveland Guardians: 4
Texas Rangers: 1
The Blue Jays are a popular pick to go from outside the field to playing in October. Why do you have Toronto getting the last wild-card spot? It’s no secret that the middle of the American League has not been good all season long. Of all of the teams in the mix for the final spot, there is one we have seen play very good baseball over an extended stretch … the Blue Jays, last year. So why not go with the team that played into November last fall getting hot again this September? — Dan Mullen
Will the Padres or Diamondbacks clinch the NL’s sixth seed?
San Diego Padres: 12 votes
Arizona Diamondbacks: 3
They’re neck and neck out West. Why are you picking the Padres over the D-backs? It comes down to the Padres’ offense. For most of the season, San Diego’s bats were inexplicably muted. Fernando Tatis Jr. didn’t hit his first home run until May 30. Manny Machado and Jackson Merrill weren’t producing. The Padres ranked 24th in the majors in wRC+ through July 23. Since then, they’re fourth. That awakening sparked a season-changing 20-7 run that pushed them into postseason contention. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks had Ketel Marte, one of their best players, go AWOL, creating a massive distraction in the middle of a heated race. The Padres have cooled off, but they boast a strong rotation and an elite bullpen anchored by the best closer in baseball in Mason Miller. They’ll beat out Arizona if the offense continues performing to expectations. — Jorge Castillo
Player predictions
Who will be the 2026 MLB home run leader?
Kyle Schwarber: 12 votes
Pete Crow-Armstrong: 3
PCA over Schwarbombs? Tell us why you broke from the majority. Schwarber is awesome, and perhaps on his way to his second consecutive season with 50 or more home runs, but what Crow-Armstrong is achieving lately for power is quite different. Schwarber reached July with 30 home runs. He has hit only 12 since then, perhaps due to a lingering lower back injury. Crow-Armstrong led all players with 14 home runs just in August. He is the one trending in the better direction. Also, the Phillies have the more difficult September schedule, with two series versus the Braves, and a final finish against the Brewers and Rays. Advantage PCA. — Eric Karabell
Yes: 7 votes
No: 8
If your answer is no, how many will he win?
Two categories: 3
One category: 4
Zero categories: 1
Not only did you have Alvarez failing to win the AL Triple Crown, you predicted he wouldn’t lead the league in ANY of the three categories (home runs, RBIs, batting average). Why? Alvarez is an offensive force and, barring something nutty down the stretch, my AL MVP pick. But he’s been moving toward the pack in the Triple Crown categories for several weeks. The batting crown is probably his best bet for finishing first, but my concern is that he’s just not getting enough quality pitches to hit. Meanwhile, Chandler Simpson has hit .379 since the All-Star break. Junior Caminero has caught him in homers and is the game‘s most devastating long-ball threat. Pete Alonso has caught him in RBIs and is a ribbie machine who never misses a game. I’d feel better about Alvarez’s chances if there were more around him in the Houston lineup, but there’s a reason he has drawn three times as many intentional walks than any other AL player since the break. — Bradford Doolittle
What will PCA’s final WAR total be?
11.0: 1 vote
10.9: 1
10.8: 2
10.7: 1
10.6: 1
10.5: 1
10.4: 3
10.2: 1
10.1: 1
9.9: 2
9.0: 1
You have PCA’s WAR dial turned up to 11 — a mark no player has reached this century other than Aaron Judge and Barry Bonds. What makes you think he’ll get there? Crow-Armstrong had already accumulated 9.4 FanGraphs wins above replacement as of Friday morning, putting him on pace for 10.88. So, this is really not that much of a stretch. When you consider how scorching hot he’s been of late, with 15 home runs since the start of August and a 1.101 OPS dating all the way back to the start of June, it starts to feel very possible. Yes, PCA is having that type of season. — Alden Gonzalez
Which pitcher will be the 2026 MLB strikeout leader?
Dylan Cease: 13 votes
Jacob Misiorowski: 2
Dylan Cease is in his sixth straight season with 200-plus strikeouts, but he has never led the league — let alone the majors. Why is this his year? With an eight-game lead in the NL Central, Milwaukee has plenty of reason to ease up on Misiorowski, who is already 26 innings above his career high. The Brewers need him at his best for October. Toronto, meanwhile, is fighting for its postseason life, and manager John Schneider knows he can lean heavily on Cease. Between the innings he regularly throws and the strikeouts he typically posts, Cease is plenty equipped to handle a demanding September. And with those extra innings will come enough strikeouts to make up the six-punch deficit and pass Misiorowski. — Jeff Passan
Make one bold prediction about the final stretch
Tim Kurkjian: Aaron Judge comes back Sept. 8. Even with all that time missed, he plays exceptionally well and makes the New York Yankees the favorite in the AL in October.
Jesse Rogers: Dylan Cease will throw a no-hitter against the Cincinnati Reds on the final day of the regular season to vault the Blue Jays into the postseason.
Castillo: The Yankees will win the AL East.
Doolittle: The entire AL East will finish at least .500, sparing us the ignominy of a losing team making the playoffs.
Schoenfield: The Yankees catch the Tampa Bay Rays and win the AL East.
Hembekides: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will win AL Player of the Month for September.
Karabell: Last season’s Blue Jays went 15-10 in September to win the AL East — and they should have won the World Series. Star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. still hasn’t hit a home run in a home game this season, and that will shockingly continue, but the Blue Jays rely on Kazuma Okamoto, Dylan Cease and the bullpen to return to October again and make a run.
Matt Marrone: The Baltimore Orioles have a pretty brutal schedule the rest of the way, so predicting that they’ll sneak into the postseason might be a tad too bold. So how about this: Pete Alonso and Luis Robert Jr. return to Citi Field on Sept. 14 and combine for four home runs in a three-game sweep of the New York Mets.
Gonzalez: The Seattle Mariners will win the AL West.
Tristan Cockcroft: The Mariners will win 11 of 15 games over the final two weeks to steal the AL West crown from the Houston Astros, and they’ll do it with Cal Raleigh hitting a walk-off home run to clinch the spot on the season’s final day. (I’m basing this heavily on what’s an absurdly light schedule for the Mariners over the final three weeks.)
Kiley McDaniel: Alvarez gets the Triple Crown, finishing with the top WAR in the AL over Bobby Witt Jr., and the Astros finish with the second seed (behind the Rays, ahead of Chicago White Sox).
Olney: I’m not sure if this qualifies as “bold,” but the Phillies will beat out the Cubs for the No. 1 wild-card seed in the NL — and then host Chicago in the wild-card series. That’s a big, big deal, because one of the Cubs’ theoretical advantages is the weather of Wrigley Field, which could mitigate some of the team’s pitching issues.
Mullen: Schwarber will both win the major league home run crown and finish the season with 230 strikeouts, smashing Mark Reynolds’ all-time record of 223 for a hitter.
Passan: Chris Sale will roar from behind to win the NL Cy Young.
(Voters: Jorge Castillo, Tristan Cockcroft, Bradford Doolittle, Liz Finny, Alden Gonzalez, Paul Hembekides, Eric Karabell, Tim Kurkjian, Matt Marrone, Kiley McDaniel, Dan Mullen, Buster Olney, Jeff Passan, Jesse Rogers, David Schoenfield)
