IDC reckons this it not just a cyclical upturn in the traditional boom-and-bust memory cycle but a structural change for the industry.
HBM capacity is already pre-committed through 2026, with forward allocations stretching into 2027
Per-bit HBM costs run several times higher than standard DRAM, and the capacity squeeze is tightening availability of other DRAM types.
Enterprise SSD prices are surging as hyperscalers lock in supply, pushing repricing into consumer and OEM channels.
Mobile semiconductor revenues are forecast to *decline* to $89.8B in 2026 – not from weak demand, but because memory now eats a larger share of the BOM and OEMs are making margin tradeoffs
Meaningful new HBM supply isn’t expected to hit the market until late 2026 at the earliest
IDC’s overall forecast has the semiconductor market crossing $1.29 trillion in 2026 (up 52.8% YoY) and reaching $1.75 trillion by 2030, with datacentre alone hitting $843.2 billion by then – nearly half the total market.
