Despite the Economic Survey outlining the factors behind the increase in gold prices over the past year, the spot gold price on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India dipped by 4.87% from Rs 1,75,231 to Rs 1,67,095 on Friday (January 30, 2026). Some of the leading gold exchange traded funds such as Axis Gold ETF, Union Gold ETF and 360 One Gold ETF slipped at least 10% each.
Let’s explore the Economic Survey’s insights regarding the surge in gold prices and whether the yellow metal’s price rally will sustain in the upcoming year.
Why did gold prices soar at record rates in 2025?
According to the Economic Survey, gold prices jumped from $2,607 to $4,315 per ounce in 2025. As of January 26, 2026, the price of gold per ounce was $5101.34. This surge was attributed to a weakening US dollar, ongoing expectations of of negative real rates, and the market’s increasing concern about geopolitical and financial tail risks.
When we check the spot gold prices of the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX), the gold price on January 30, 2025, was Rs 81,028, and it skyrocketed to Rs 1,75,231 on January 29, 2026, giving a whopping 116% return to its investors in a year.Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran in the Economic Survey 2025-26 says record prices of gold in 2025 were mainly due to tariff announcements by the US government, global policy uncertainty and a weakening US dollar, among other factors. The Economic Survey also revealed whether gold price rally can sustain in the future.
However, even as the Economic Survey revealed reasons for gold prices rise in the last one year, the spot gold price on Multi Commodity Exchange of India dipped by 4.87% from Rs 1,75,231 to Rs 1,67,095 on Friday (January 30, 2026). Some of the leading gold exchange traded funds such as Axis Gold ETF, Union Gold ETF and 360 One Gold ETF slipped at least 10% each.
Let’s see the findings of the Economic Survey related to rising gold prices and will the yellow metal’s price rally sustain in the near year.
Why did gold prices soar at record rates in 2025?
The Economic Survey says gold rose from $2,607 to $4,315 per ounce in 2025. As of January 26, 2026, the price of gold per ounce was $5101.34. It says the record rally reflected a weakening US dollar, expectations of persistently negative real rates, and the market’s growing assessment of geopolitical and financial tail risks.
Looking at the spot gold prices of the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX), the gold price on January 30, 2025, was Rs 81,028, which rose to Rs 1,67,095 on January 29, 2026, giving a whopping 106.22% return to its investors in a year.
Naveen Mathur, director- commodities currencies and GIFT IFSC, Anand Rathi Shares & Stock Brokers, says for the full year 2025, the gold import bill have remained marginally higher at around US$59 billion compared to 2024 despite more than 60% rise in prices, which was due to declining volumes by over 20% in the same year (as per data available from world gold council).
“Expectations for 2026 may still see elevated imports in terms of price but volume quantity may continue to remain moderately slower as compared to 2025,” says Mathur.
MCX gold spot price return in 1 year (Month-wise data)
| Date | Gold Price/10g (Rs) | Absolute return (%) |
| January 30, 2025 | 81028 | |
| February 28, 2025 | 84789 | 4.64 |
| March 31, 2025 | 88691 | 9.46 |
| April 30, 2025 | 93928 | 15.92 |
| May 30, 2025 | 95058 | 17.32 |
| June 30, 2025 | 95676 | 18.08 |
| July 30, 2025 | 98616 | 21.71 |
| August 29, 2025 | 100999 | 24.65 |
| September 30, 2025 | 114761 | 41.63 |
| October 30, 2025 | 119905 | 47.98 |
| November 28, 2025 | 126033 | 55.54 |
| December 30, 2025 | 133826 | 65.16 |
| January 30, 2025 | 167095 | 106.22 |
Tariff announcement played role in gold rate rally
The Economic Survey further says the first half of the calendar year (CY) 2025 saw the global financial markets reacting to the tariff announcements by the US government. The survey claims global policy uncertainty increased following the tariff announcements, prompting investors to reduce their exposure to the US Dollar (USD) and seek safe-haven assets, such as gold.
Emerging markets’ focus more on gold holdings
With the increasing prices of gold, the Economic Survey pointed out that the share of gold in reserves is also on the rise. The survey says it fits into a larger gloal pattern where numerous emerging markets are boosting their gold holdings amid geopolitical uncertainty and changes in the global interest rate cycle.
“SDRs remained stable at $18.7 billion, while India’s reserve position in the IMF increased to $4.7 billion,” reveals the survey.
Gold components rise sharply
The Economic Survey says Foreign Currency Assets (FCA), which form the liquid core of reserves, softened slightly from $567.6 billion in end March 2025 to $560.5 billion as of January 16, 2026.
In contrast, the gold component rose sharply to $117.5 billion as of January 16, 2026, compared to $78.2 billion at the end of March 2025, according to the survey.
This increase reflects both valuation gains during a period of elevated global gold prices and a continued preference among central banks for diversifying into non-dollar reserve assets, says the survey.
Impact of rising gold prices
Gold import bill risesThe Economic Survey says in FY25, India’s import composition continues to be dominated by petroleum crude, gold and petroleum products, with these sectors accounting for over one-third of total imports.
The survey says gold imports increased by 27.4% (YoY), which may be attributed to a rise in gold prices, increasing by 38.2% (YoY) and driven by strong domestic consumption.
Rise in loan against gold
The Economic Survey says there was a substantial rise in loans against gold jewellery, which increased by 125.3 per cent (YoY), possibly due to the increasing prices of gold.
Will gold and silver price rally continue?
The Economic Survey forecasts that the prices of precious metals, both gold and silver, are may continue to rise due to their sustained demand as safe-haven investments amid global uncertainties, unless a lasting peace is achieved and trade wars are resolved.
Some commentators feel that the torrid pace set by gold and silver in 2025 may not be sustained, claims the Economic Survey, adding that if they are correct, core inflation excluding precious metals may be higher, not lower.
