Key events
First set: Sabalenka* 2-4 Rybakina (*next server)
Rybakina hasn’t quite hit the heights yet on her first serve, but is doing a good job behind her second, and that gets her to 15-0. The longest rally of the final on the next point … and eventually Rybakina raises the stakes with a vicious cross-court forehand that sets up the inside-out winner! 30-0. Sabalenka is now spinning and sliding and doing all she can to get the ball back … she does … but Rybakina, as is her wont, smacks it away. 40-0. Sabalenka shakes off some of her frustrations with a backhand winner down the line and Rybakina then balloons beyond the baseline… but Sabalenka can make no further inroads as Rybakina holds to 30.
First set: Sabalenka 2-3 Rybakina* (*next server)
This is Sabalenka’s seventh consecutive grand slam final on hard courts – she’s the third woman after Steffi Graf and Martina Hingis to do that in the open era. And this is also her fourth straight Australian open final – something matched only by Hingis. And Sabalenka looks more like the player who has accumulated those numbers as she secures her first hold to love, drawing three backhand errors from Rybakina and finishing things off with an ace.
First set: Sabalenka* 1-3 Rybakina (*next server)
A first double fault from Rybakina hands Sabalenka a 0-15 start. Rybakina’s coach, Stefano Vukov, has some words of encouragement from the sidelines. Rybakina’s return to form, by the way, has coincided with his suspension being lifted last summer after he was banned by the WTA because of alleged verbal abuse towards her. Rybakina, from 0-15, routinely rattles off the next four points to hold. And Sabalenka, never one to be outdone, looks rather annoyed at the fact she’s been second-best so far.
First set: Sabalenka 1-2 Rybakina* (*next server)
Sabalenka shows courage under early fire to work her way to 40-15 on serve … before making a mess of her backhand. No bother; an ace seals the game. She’s on the board. And here’s Gregory Phillips: “Anagram based predictions suggest this match could be an “easy banana lark” for Sabalenka.” It’s more of a banana skin right now, I’d say.
First set: Sabalenka* 0-2 Rybakina (*next server)
Rybakina, with her effortless power and movement, calmly glides to 15-0, 30-0, 40-0 and game to back up the break. Sabalenka, in contrast, looks panicked by her opponent’s start. And some obligatory fashion notes: Sabalenka is once again in her pink, peach and black dayglo dress, which she has described as “surf inspired” and makes her look as if she should be an extra on Venice Beach in the Barbie movie. Rybakina is in a slightly more understated pale yellow dress, with a splash of blue.
Rybakina breaks: Sabalenka 0-1 Rybakina* (*next server)
Ready? Let’s play. Sabalenka, playing her fifth final out of the past six grand slams, settles in early with two short, sharp points for 30-0. But Rybakina reads Sabalenka’s next serve and rams a cross-court forehand return winner. Wow. That was an early reminder of her power, as if we needed one. Then at 30-all, Rybakina fires a forehand return down the line! Sabalenka, smartly, serves to Rybakina’s backhand on the break point, and the Russian-born Kazakhstani can’t get the ball back in to play. Sabalenka strikes long at deuce, and Rybakina has a second break point. Sabalenka goes for broke with an inside-out forehand but blazes it into the tramlines to surrender serve already! She hit nearly 90% of her first serves in the game – but it still wasn’t enough.
Laura Robson, meanwhile, on TNT Sports says she’s 50-50 and declares as the main presenter she’s allowed to sit on the fence. Coco Vandeweghe says she was going to back Sabalenka, but the fact the roof is closed may help Rybakina, but in the end she opts for Sabalenka in three anyway. Tim Henman is backing Rybakina.
So who wins? Sabalenka’s record in Australia, plus her greater consistency as the world No 1, makes her the favourite, but just as Rybakina won’t be fazed by Sabalenka’s power, nor will she be by the Belarusian’s stats. She knows she can beat her, having done so in six of their 14 meetings, and knows that she can win a slam, having done so at Wimbledon four years ago. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if this goes the distance … but Sabalenka has the slight edge.
Tik, tok, tik, tok, the players warming up, so we’ve got time to talk tactics. There won’t be too many surprises here; as two of the biggest servers and ball-strikers on tour, both will want to be the one bossing the points and won’t be at all intimidated by the power coming at them. But Sabalenka’s game has evolved to show more variety, and throwing in plenty of drop shots today would be a smart approach, given Rybakina doesn’t move quite as well as her. Rybakina will have to serve better than she did in her semi-final; if she misses too many first serves again Sabalenka will surely take advantage.
The first victory is Sabalenka’s: the world No 1 wins the toss and doesn’t even hesitate in opting to serve first. A message of intent from the off.
Here the players come, navigating their way through the backstage tunnel, which has been souped-up this year and is more like a discombobulating hall of mirrors. They pass the pre-match test by finding their way through and emerging unscathed. Actually, Sabalenka doesn’t only emerge unscathed, she absolutely strided through. She looks in the zone already.
The roof on Rod Laver Arena is closed because of rain. Rybakina’s face hardly ever betrays any emotions, but she’s likely to be happy, because she won their most recent meeting indoors, at the WTA Finals in November for her biggest title since Wimbledon in 2022.
If you’d like to get in touch with any predictions and musings you can do so here. It’s always good to get the chat going.
And this from Krishna Moorthy: “Unlike you I am yet to have any breakfast and just a coffee that triggered my brain to do some anagrams and Elena Rybakina turned into “Break Any Alien”. If aliens do not stand a chance I can safely assume that Aryna does not either. Predicting this AO has been pretty risky (Alcaraz pulling off a miracle, Djoker getting a walkover and then performing his favourite Houdini act…) and an anagram is as good as any measured guess.”
“Hi Katy, hope you’ve recovered from yesterday’s Shakespearean epics, full of plot twists and turns,” emails Jeremy Boyce. “If today’s final lives up to the level and drama of those matches the crowd will be in for a treat. And possibly wishing that the women played five sets too. No pressure then. Whatever the outcome let’s hope neither of the combatants ends up feeling like an animal in the zoo and that any racket smashing is tolerated in the same way as grunting and other expressions of passion and effort.”
Rybakina says:
Last match we played here [in the 2023 final], it was very close. Throughout the match I had some little opportunities, but in the end of this third set, Aryna stepped in. She deserved that win.
Of course many years passed, a lot of matches has been played. Hopefully with all the experience which I got from this last match, last time final I played here, I can bring it to Saturday’s match and do my best, focus on my serve, of course. Since we are both very aggressive players, serve is important. Hopefully this time it’s gonna go my way.
Sabalenka says:
Her shots are heavy, deep, flat balls. It’s not easy to work with, but we have a great history. She’s incredible player. We had a lot of great battles, a lot of finals we played. I’m looking forward to [battling] this power.
Rybakina
First round def Kaja Juvan 6-4, 6-3
Second round def Varvara Gracheva 7-5, 6-2
Third round def Tereza Valentova 6-2, 6-3
Fourth round def Elise Mertens (21) 6-1, 6-3
Quarter-final def Iga Swiatek (2) 7-5, 6-1
Semi-final def Jessica Pegula (6) 6-3, 7-6
Sabalenka
First round def Tiantsoa Rakotomanga Rajaonah 6-4, 6-1
Second round def Bai Zhuoxuan 6-3, 6-1
Third round def Anastasia Potapova 7-6, 7-6
Fourth round def Victoria Mboko (17) 6-1, 7-6
Quarter-final def Iva Jovic (29) 6-3, 6-0
Semi-final def Elina Svitolina (12) 6-2, 6-3
Road to the final. Both have generated dangerous momentum as the tournament has progressed and are yet to drop a set. Sabalenka turned into something of a teen hunter to halt the breakthrough runs of Victoria Mboko and Iva Jovic, before brutally ending the 31-year-old Elina Svitolina’s hopes of a first slam title in the last four. But while Sabalenka’s level has been eye-catching, Rybakina has had the tougher route to this final, and has defeated two top-six players in Iga Swiatek and Jessica Pegula. And when Rybakina gets on a roll, it’s very hard to stop her.
Tale of the tape
Sabalenka – Rybakina
27 Age 26
1 Seeding 5
1 World ranking 5
4 Grand slam titles 1
8 Grand slam finals 3
22 Singles titles 11
8 Head-to-head 6
And a lovely gallery of the best images from week two as well:
Meanwhile, I’ve just eaten far too many overnight oats for breakfast (I thought I better fuel up in case this goes the distance – I was underprepared for Djokovic v Sinner yesterday) and am feeling a little sleepy. So here’s Tumaini’s preview until I wake myself up:
At the end of yet another semi-final in Melbourne on Thursday night, Aryna Sabalenka slammed the door shut on Elina Svitolina with a searing forehand winner, her 29th of the night. It was another near flawless performance from the Belarusian, another match she dominated from start to finish without any response, reinforcing her status as the leading hard court player of her generation.
Six matches in, Sabalenka’s fourth consecutive run to the Australian Open final has proved one of her most impressive. She is yet to drop a set and has shown how much her game has evolved by also dominating the net and peppering opponents with an array of drop shots. The few times she has been pushed, such as in her third round match against Anastasia Potapova, the world No 1 has produced her best tennis in the decisive moments and been in control of the baseline throughout.
A completely different match-up awaits Sabalenka on Saturday as she faces Elena Rybakina, the fifth seed and one of her toughest rivals, for her fifth grand slam title. While their career achievements reflect the fact that Sabalenka is more rounded, a better mover and returner with greater variation and consistency, Rybakina is one of the only players capable of tearing the racket from Sabalenka’s hands.
This was the case just three months ago at the end-of-season finals in Riyadh, where Rybakina closed out a spectacular 6-3, 7-6 (0) win over Sabalenka to clinch the second biggest title of her career behind her Wimbledon crown. At the end of the match, after the Kazakhstani bulldozed through the second set tie-break without dropping a point, an inconsolable Sabalenka was captured on video venting to her team: “Once a year, even a stick shoots,” she said of Rybakina’s performance.
Rybakina is not nearly as erratic as Sabalenka suggested, but her title run in Riyadh had come after many false starts. Until a few weeks before the finals, Rybakina was not even in a qualifying spot as one of the top eight players. Her late surge in Asia to reach the event increasingly looks like one of the more significant moments of her career. She has continued the momentum she built in Riyadh, also reaching this final in Melbourne without dropping a set. While Sabalenka’s level has been astounding, there is no doubt that Rybakina has had the tougher path to the final, defeating two top players in the world No 2, Iga Swiatek, and Jessica Pegula, the No 6.
You can read the rest here:
Already today, Britain’s Neal Skupski and his American partner Christian Harrison have claimed the men’s doubles title in their first slam together. Skupski – who also triumphed at Wimbledon in 2023 – and Harrison beat the Australians Jason Kubler and Marc Polmans 7-6, 6-4. It continues Britain’s recent advances in men’s doubles – it’s the third time in the past five majors that one British player has triumphed in the event and there are no less than five players currently in the world’s top 10 – and we can only hope that some of that success will extend into the singles in the future too. Having Jack Draper back fit and healthy would help; he could return after five months out injured in Britain’s Davis Cup tie against Norway next week.
Preamble
G’day everyone! After this tournament suddenly and belatedly exploded into life yesterday with two men’s semi-finals for the ages, today we could have another blockbuster as Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina face each other for the women’s title, in a repeat of the 2023 final.
Sabalenka came from a set down then to win her first grand slam, and has gone on to not only become a four-time major champion and undisputed world No 1 but accumulate serious numbers on hard courts that have surpassed even some of Serena’s stats. This is Sabalenka’s seventh consecutive major final on the surface – something matched only by Martina Hingis and Steffi Graf in the open era – and victory would secure her third Australian Open title in four years. She’s the female version of Jannik Sinner on hard courts – well, Sinner before he lost to Novak Djokovic.
But Rybakina, when she’s on her game, is capable of taking the racket out of anyone’s hands, Sabalenka included. After injury, illness and the suspension of her coach, the 2022 Wimbledon champion is playing some of her best tennis in three years, underlined by her statement victory over Sabalenka nearly three months ago to win the season-ending WTA Finals.
Rybakina may be the world No 5 but these are the best two players in the world right now, who have shown they can bring out the best in each other on the biggest stages. Despite the variation Sabalenka has added to her game, this will essentially be power vs power and first-strike tennis to take the breath away, with the contrast in personalities between the heart-on-her-sleeve Belarusian Sabalenka and clinically composed Russian-born Kazakhstani Rybakina making this all the more absorbing.
The players will arrive on court at about: 7.30pm Melbourne time/8.30am GMT. Don’t go anywhere!
